Week 3 of the 2024 college football schedule is drawing closer, and UMass is slated to travel to Amherst -(Amherst, New York, that is) – to take on a future MAC rival in the Buffalo Bulls. It will be the third of five games against future MAC peers for UMass, with the Minutemen still seeking their first win of the season after disappointing losses against Eastern Michigan and Toledo.
UMass comes into this game having gained some positive momentum after hanging tough against a good Toledo squad in week 2. While the Minutemen still took a 38-23 loss, the game was much closer than the score would suggest. It is crucial that UMass is able to build off the positives and fix the negatives that caused them to lose a very winnable game against Toledo. Buffalo seems like a good opponent to face as the Minutemen try to get their season back on track and avoid going 0-3.
Buffalo is 1-1 so far this year, picking up a win against FCS Lafayette in week 1 by a score of 30-13. Things didn’t go as smoothly for the Bulls in week 2, when they hit the road to face a future 2024 UMass opponent in Missouri, losing 38-0.
Offensively, Buffalo ranks as the 126th passing offense in the nation, with senior starting QB C.J. Ogbonna throwing for 250 yards, 2 TD’s and 1 INT through the first two games. Ogbonna originally started his college career at FCS Southeast Missouri State, where he played for 2 years before transferring to Buffalo in 2023. Ogbonna was the backup last year to Cole Snyder, who faced UMass in week 1 this season after transferring to Eastern Michigan for the 2024 season.
Ogbonna has had some growing pains in his first season as a starting QB in Buffalo, completing just 20 of his 44 pass attempts on the season (45.5%). The UMass defense, who is yet to record a turnover on the season, will likely find some opportunities to make plays on the ball in their man coverage heavy system.
UMass holds the 79th ranked passing defense, surrendering 416 yards in their first two contests. After an overall good showing against Toledo, where Rockets QB Tucker Gleason completed just 8 of his 23 attempts (albeit allowing 3 TD’s in the process), the Minutemen will face a less explosive Buffalo offense who is expected to miss one of their top WR’s in sophomore Nik McMillan due to injury, who leads the Bulls with 76 yards and 1 TD on the season. Expect Buffalo to look towards fellow sophomore Victor Snow, who leads the team in receptions (8) and is right behind McMillan in yards (75).
A major weakness of the UMass defense so far has been their pass rush, as the Minutemen have not recorded a sack yet this season. They will need to quickly improve against a Buffalo offensive line that has only given up 3 sacks this year.
For the rushing game, Buffalo sits 68th in the nation with 322 yards and 2 TD’s. The Bulls have split carries between senior Jacqez Barksdale and junior Al-Jay Henderson, who have 29 and 21 carries respectively. Barksdale leads the team with 166 yards and 1 TD, while Henderson has 62 yards and 1 TD.
C.J. Ogbonna is a rushing threat to monitor as well, running for 214 yards and 3 TD’s in 2023 while playing a limited number of snaps. Overall, the Bulls are managing just 4.1 yards per carry, though Barksdale sits at a much higher 5.7 yards per carry mark on his own.
UMass boasts the 52nd ranked rushing defense, allowing just 217 yards (108.5 avg.) and 3 TD’s so far this season. Opponents are averaging 3.81 yards per carry against the Minutemen, good for 75th in the nation.
Stopping the run should be a priority for UMass, and considering their solid run defense in the first two games, there is hope that the Minutemen can force Buffalo to beat them through the air with Ogbonna rather than on the ground with Barksdale and Henderson.
Switching sides, we find that UMass comes out as the 78th passing offense, as QB Taisun Phommachanh has thrown for 436 yards and 1 TD up to this point. Phommachanh has played well after rehabbing a nagging knee injury that plagued his 2023 campaign, and finally has looked healthy again this season. UMass found success in the passing game against Toledo, where Phommachanh went 26/40 for 259 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.
While 2023 leading receiver Anthony Simpson has had a disappointing start to the season, new Eastern Washington transfer Jakobie Keeney-James and sophomore Jacquon Gibson stepped up big time against Toledo and have emerged as top options for Phommachanh in the passing game. They will face a Buffalo passing defense that places 87th in the nation for pass defense, giving up 443 yards and 2 TDs thus far.
UMass desperately needs to improve their pass blocking, as the Minutemen are worst in the nation with 11 allowed sacks on the year – no other team has allowed more than 9. The Buffalo pass rush has recorded 4 sacks this year, all coming against FCS Lafayette in week 1.
The UMass rushing attack is 87th in the nation, gathering 277 yards and 3 TDs. It has been a group effort for the Minutemen on the ground with RB’s Jalen John and new transfers CJ Hester and Brandon Campbell. Taisun Phommachanh has been the critical part of the UMass rushing attack however, leading the team with 101 yards and 1 TD. Keep in mind, Phommachanh has hit that number while having 62 yards subtracted due to the aforementioned 11 sacks he has taken.
Buffalo’s rushing defense also comes in at 87th in the nation, having conceded 298 yards and 5 TD’s. All 5 of those touchdowns came from Missouri, who gashed the Bulls defense for 255 yards last week. UMass will need to find a way to avoid senior Buffalo LB Shaun Dolac, who leads the Bulls with 27 tackles, notching 1 sack and 1 INT as well.
UMass needs to clean up their act on special teams, after allowing a kickoff return touchdown to Toledo RB Jacquez Stuart and making a head-scratching decision to go for an onside kick with 3 minutes left while still holding all 3 timeouts down by one score.
Penalties also must be addressed by head coach Don Brown, as UMass has been flagged 19 times this season for 196 yards. Buffalo has been much cleaner, only committing 9 penalties for 100 yards. If the Minutemen want any shot at winning, they need to be more disciplined and not give Buffalo free yards.
UMass needs to win this game to not let their season slip out of hand. The first half of their 2024 season is much more favorable than the second half, and the Minutemen need to take advantage and get in the win column. Buffalo is likely to be the most winnable game against a FBS opponent until UConn comes to town in November. With an FCS opponent in Central Connecticut State on deck for week 4, UMass has a path to a 2-2 record. Head coach Don Brown needs to reel this UMass team in and get them focused and disciplined in order to make it happen.
I’m going to pick UMass to get the win, though it should be a close one. Give me UMass 31-27.
